Abstract
Wind energy development in Africa necessitates understanding its impact on bat populations, particularly bats in the family Pteropodidae, which are ecologically important but understudied in this context. I assessed whether wind turbine-related mortality is likely to cause population-level impacts on Egyptian fruit bat (Rousettus aegyptiacus) and Wahlberg's epauletted fruit bat (Epomophorus wahlbergi) in South Africa, using a Leslie matrix model and potential biological removal (PBR). The matrix model showed population growth for both species, even under low and medium fatality scenarios. Under a high fatality scenario, the probability of population decline reached 60% for Egyptian fruit bat and 72.3% for Wahlberg's epauletted fruit bat, with both species showing a reduction in population size over 100 years. Quasi-extinction risk increased with rising fatality, reaching 21–23% at a 1% annual fatality rate. The PBR results also showed resilience at low to medium fatality levels, but a high fatality scenario could exceed sustainable removal thresholds by 636% for Egyptian fruit bat and 861% for Wahlberg's epauletted fruit bat under precautionary management. The findings indicate that while these fruit bat populations may withstand low to medium levels of turbine-related mortality, increasing fatalities pose a significant risk of long-term population decline. This underscores the need for robust monitoring and a comprehensive understanding of cumulative impacts to align wind energy expansion with biodiversity conservation objectives in Africa. The findings support species-specific, population-based thresholds that reflect demographic sensitivity and spatial exposure. This approach can guide evidence-based regulation and conservation in wind energy planning for African bats.