Abstract
This document outlines the market opportunity for offshore wind and serves as the Phase 1 deliverable within the Atlantic Canada Offshore Wind Grid Integration and Transmission Study, facilitated and managed by Net Zero Atlantic and funded by Natural Resources Canada. As described in the report, the full study will build out a comprehensive assessment of the potential for a transformative GW-scale offshore wind industry in the Atlantic Provinces, with a long-term view from 2035-2050. The Phase 1 deliverable focuses on the potential market and offtake opportunities for offshore wind, and models future scenarios in which offshore wind helps decarbonize domestic electricity consumption, export clean energy to neighboring markets, and serve growing hydrogen demand.
The approach in Phase 1 evaluates long-term electricity demands and opportunities using an industry leading electricity system capacity expansion model, PLEXOS-LT. This ensures that scenario-based offshore wind planning targets are considered as part of the overall regional electricity system, simulating how offshore wind interacts with the rest of the existing and potential future resources on the grid. The model performs a least-cost optimization to meet remaining demand with existing and potential future supply, including offshore wind targets. It integrates robust representation of candidate resources, and key operational, policy, transmission and other system constraints. This enables the evaluation of offshore wind targets and their impact on energy system costs, reliability, and emissions. In Phase 2, the study will perform more detailed hourly simulations of the future electric grid, evaluating operational implications and integration investments. The findings from Phase 2 will be used to refine the portfolios and targets for the Final Roadmap.