Abstract
Federal regulations commit Canada to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century. Meeting these goals will require a fundamental transformation in how energy is produced and consumed across the country. In the Atlantic Provinces, the power sector accounts for roughly one-quarter of total emissions, with fossil fuels still supplying about 15% of electricity generation today. However, near-term emissions targets and the continued buildout of renewables in the region are expected to drive substantial reductions by 2030. Beyond 2030, offshore wind presents a significant opportunity to further decarbonize the power sector, supporting progress toward net-zero emissions while also meeting rising electricity demand from the electrification of buildings, transportation, and industry.
Offshore wind power generation has many potential advantages: strong and stable output, proximity to demand, high technical potential relative to land-based resources, and zero carbon emissions. The extensive coastline of the Atlantic Provinces also boasts some of the highest performing offshore wind resources along the North American Eastern Seaboard, with particularly high output in the winter, the time when clean energy is needed most. Early investments in offshore wind provide an opportunity to create an offshore wind industry and jobs, leveraging the region’s strong marine oriented labor force and research expertise. This clean resource may also serve nascent industries like green hydrogen, building on plans to support European markets, or other industrial loads or data centers. While these opportunities hold promise, realizing offshore wind’s potential will require a coordinated effort to address key challenges, including lowering the cost of offshore wind and building out the transmission infrastructure to transport clean electricity to sources of demand.
This document summarizes the approach and findings from the market opportunity assessment for offshore wind and long-term electric grid capacity expansion and production cost modeling, serving as a final deliverable within the Atlantic Canada Offshore Wind Grid Integration and Transmission Study, facilitated and managed by Net Zero Atlantic and funded by Natural Resources Canada. This document supports the assessment of the potential for a transformative GW-scale offshore wind industry in the Atlantic Provinces, with a long-term view from 2035-2050. The report summarizes the potential market and offtake opportunities for offshore wind, and models future scenarios in which offshore wind helps decarbonize domestic electricity consumption, export clean energy to neighboring markets, and serve growing industrial demand. It also explores the conditions in which expanded interprovincial transmission might lead to more efficient and cost-effective integration of offshore wind, and how that transmission might impact dispatch and utilization across the region.
The modeling approach evaluates long-term electricity demands and opportunities using an industry-leading electricity system capacity expansion model, PLEXOS-LT, as well as the detailed production cost model, PLEXOS ST. This ensures that scenario-based offshore wind planning targets are considered as part of the overall regional electricity system, simulating how offshore wind interacts with the rest of the existing and potential future resources on the grid. The model performs a least-cost optimization to meet demand with existing and potential future supply, including offshore wind targets. It integrates robust representation of candidate resources, and key operational, policy, transmission and other system constraints. This enables the evaluation of offshore wind targets and their impact on energy system costs, reliability, and emissions. Additionally, the study reviews detailed hourly simulations of the future electric grid, evaluating operational implications and integration investments. Findings from this analysis are discussed in the Electric Grid Production Cost Modeling results section.