Abstract
Over the last two decades Energy Policy has seen a marked shift towards renewables as part of the UK commitment to reduce green house gas emissions by 20% between 2000 and 2010. The policy was reinforced in November 2007 with a new target of 50 per cent of Scotland's electricity from renewables by 2020, and an interim milestone of 31 per cent by 2011. The 2011 target implies around 5,000 Megawatts of installed capacity almost double current levels. Given current technology and the time needed to plan and develop large projects such as storage hydro or offshore wind farms, the policy suggests a very significant increase in on-shore wind farms with associated impacts on Scotland's landscape.
Scottish tourism depends heavily on the country's landscape, with 92% of visitors stating that scenery was important in their choice of Scotland as a holiday destination, the natural environment being important to 89% of visitors (Tourism Attitudes Survey 2005). As part of the general policy to create a more successful country, with increasing sustainable economic growth, the Tourism sector has agreed a target of 50% revenue growth in the ten years to 2015
The potential problem is that many people find that man made structures such as pylons and wind turbines reduce the attractiveness of a landscape. It is logical to assume that reduced quality of an important feature could reduce demand to some degree which in turn may result in either reduced prices for tourism services or reduced numbers of tourists or both. Any loss of expenditure will lead to a reduction in economic activity and result in a loss of income and jobs.
However the tourism industry itself requires a reliable supply of electricity and climate change threatens radical changes to our valued habitats and wildlife, and may irreversibly alter the very landscape that visitors value so highly. Wind turbines are an established technology readily available in today's market place, able to supply electricity whilst reducing the effects of our energy usage on climate change. Sensitively located, renewable energy can also bring social and economic benefits to communities and to local businesses. Government is required to evaluate all the issues including landscape, tourism, security of supply, the impact of climate change internationally (which is indisputably large and negative), and the public financial support implicit in the renewable obligation of the energy industry. To develop appropriate policy requires an understanding of the significance of each of these elements.
In reality the discussion on any particular wind farm proposal is now almost always an adversarial debate, and opinions on the policy area of wind farms in Scotland have become polarised and founded on competing myths (of which some are, and some are not, founded in reality). This research sought to provide an evidence base on one contentious element of the decision, the impact on tourism in Scotland, and to assist decision making by identifying:
- The potential number of tourists that would be affected
- Geographic Information Systems ( GIS) were used to assess the number of tourists that may come into contact (accommodation in sight of wind farms or through exposure while travelling by road) with any of the projects that are built, already permitted, or currently in the process of applying for permission within the planning system.
The reactions of those tourists affected by wind farms
this was established by carrying out both a large-scale internet-based survey of current and potential tourists' attitudes and values, along with nearly 400 direct interviews of visitor intentions at tourist spots located close to existing or proposed wind farms.
- Geographic Information Systems ( GIS) were used to assess the number of tourists that may come into contact (accommodation in sight of wind farms or through exposure while travelling by road) with any of the projects that are built, already permitted, or currently in the process of applying for permission within the planning system.
- The economic impact of those reactions
- this was believed to result from two main sources. First, there may be a change in the number of tourists going to an area when a wind farm is constructed, and it should be possible to estimate the related change in expenditure (through the intercept survey). Secondly, the views from some accommodation will be affected by the construction of wind farms. Under certain assumptions, a fall in average willingness to pay for a "room with a view" results in a proportionate fall in the average price actually paid by the tourist. Consequently, any proportionate fall in expenditure on accommodation can be calculated (through the internet survey). Bringing together the two effects allows the estimation of the net economic impact at the local and Scottish levels.
- Examining the three questions above is a crucial step in:
- Replacing myth with evidence
- Determining if there is a trade-off, for local communities and for Scotland as a whole, between energy and environmental benefits and tourism impacts, or
- Identifying the circumstances when there should be a general presumption for or against a development.
The initial step in assessing economic impact was to look to the experiences of other countries, by way of a literature review.