Abstract
Atlantic Canada is uniquely positioned to become a North American leader in offshore wind energy, with world-class wind resources, favourable bathymetry, and proximity to major domestic and export markets. This report provides a comprehensive assessment of the region’s actual offshore wind deployment potential, synthesizing technical, locational, economic, and policy factors across Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island. This report is a key deliverable of Phase 2: Offshore Wind Resource Potential of the Atlantic Canada Offshore Wind Grid Integration and Transmission Study, facilitated and managed by Net Zero Atlantic and funded by Natural Resources Canada.
This report focuses on the Actual Deployment potential of offshore wind in Atlantic Canada and describes the analytical pathway used to progress from resource availability to realistic build-out outcomes. The assessment distinguishes between four levels of offshore wind potential. Technical Potential represents the full theoretical offshore wind resource and associated energy yield based on wind conditions and turbine performance. Locational Potential narrows this resource to areas that are physically and regulatorily feasible after applying bathymetric, environmental, and spatial constraints. Economic Potential further refines these areas to those that are cost-competitive under assumed capital and infrastructure conditions. Actual Deployment reflects the portion of the resource that could potentially be developed, accounting for economic factors, demand growth, grid integration capability, policy frameworks, and social and environmental considerations.
The methodology used for this Actual Deployment Potential of Atlantic Canada Offshore Wind report integrated advanced wind resource modelling, geospatial constraint mapping, economic benchmarking, and scenario-based market assessments. High-resolution atmospheric simulations were conducted using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modelling to characterize wind speeds and energy yields across the study area. These were combined with detailed bathymetric and environmental datasets to identify technically and locationally feasible areas for offshore wind development. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to apply regulatory, ecological, and social constraints, while economic screening incorporated capital and operating cost benchmarks from leading industry sources. Finally, deployment scenarios were modelled based on varying demand conditions identified in the project’s Phase 1 Report, Market Opportunities for Offshore Wind in Atlantic Canada – including domestic consumption, export opportunities, and hydrogen production – to estimate realistic build-out levels across Atlantic Canada.