Abstract
The rapid expansion of renewable energy is a key component in mitigating climate change. Although Norway generates most of its electricity from renewables, the country aims to increase its production to decarbonise sectors heavily reliant on fossil fuels. However, energy infrastructure requires land, and land change is a primary driver of biodiversity loss in Norway. A novel countryside species-area relationship model was applied to Norway’s renewable energy infrastructure for future energy outlooks to derive potentially disappeared fractions of species. Habitat loss impacts on species richness were quantified for land-based technologies: hydropower (reservoirs and power plants), onshore wind, solar power, and power lines that traverse forests, excluding offshore wind. We modelled future biodiversity impacts based on projections from six scenarios that estimate electricity production through 2050 by renewable technologies in Norway. Our results suggest that while hydropower particularly affects birds and mammals due to habitat loss, future hydropower plants will have a smaller effect on species richness than onshore wind and solar power. The findings highlight that electricity production capacity and spatial location influence the magnitude of habitat loss impact on biodiversity. Therefore, prioritising projects with lower biodiversity impacts can mitigate the trade-offs between climate action and nature conservation. Our scenario analysis also indicates that the main driver of future pressure on biodiversity is not the strategic site selection of power plants but the overall demand for electricity production. By 2050, biodiversity impacts from habitat loss in Norway could increase by 16–28%, depending on the scale of renewable energy expansion.