Abstract
Marine mammals are increasingly exposed to anthropogenic noises, including from offshore wind activities, necessitating the development and refinement of tools to predict the effects of noise on their populations. Agent-based models (ABMs) are an effective tool that can simulate realistic movements and behaviors of animals to quantify population consequences of disturbance. In this study, I used the Europe-based ABM ‘DEPONS’ to (1) evaluate its effectiveness in a new environment, the Gulf of Maine, USA/Bay of Fundy, Canada, and (2) develop estimates of the population dynamics of local harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) interacting with expected noises from proposed floating offshore wind farm construction and operation. This new, local formulation of the model produced realistic population dynamics through year eight, enabling preliminary estimates of population effects from reduced foraging success. Modeled porpoise movements appeared visually similar to those of real, satellite-tracked porpoises, but mean home range sizes and maximum net squared displacement differed significantly. Construction and operational noise, simulated separately, both caused minor population declines (0.019% and 0.59%, respectively). Operational noise effects started small and increased over time, whereas construction noise effects did not change substantially over the impact period. Additional model calibration is needed, ideally based on more tracking data from GPS tags. Once calibrated further, the model can be used to estimate the cumulative impacts of a variety of noises on harbor porpoises near the Gulf of Maine/Bay of Fundy and inform management decisions.