Abstract
The growing demand for offshore wind farms (OWFs) to achieve climate targets calls for careful marine spatial planning (MSP) to harmonize energy development with the preservation of marine ecosystems. This study explores the use of Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) as a decision-support tool for OWF siting, focusing on the case study of Pantelleria Island, Italy. The distribution of thirteen marine species, including vulnerable species (i.e., rays, sharks, dolphins, and the loggerhead turtle), was modelled using presence-only data. Environmental variables affecting species presence and distribution, such as bathymetry, nutrient levels, and sea surface conditions, were also modelled. ENMs were constructed using ensemble modeling (GLM, RF, MaxEnt, SVM) and evaluated with AUC scores. Then two composite indicators were developed to map areas of ecological vulnerability and potential benefit, highlighting spatial zones where OWF impacts should be minimized or could be beneficial. Finally, a vulnerability map was created to reveal overlaps of OWFs with key habitats for sensitive species. The application of this approach to the case study revealed that in the southern waters of Pantelleria, the potential benefit from OWFs was limited due to low species co-occurrence. Results from the case study emphasize that ENMs, combined with MSP, can guide environmentally sound OWF placement, minimizing biodiversity threats while leveraging possible ecological benefits. This integrative approach supports both marine conservation goals and sustainable offshore energy expansion, offering a proactive alternative to traditional post-impact assessments.