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Projection of future wave climate for marine renewable energy

Abstract

Future changes in  wind-wave  climate have  broad  implications  for operation and design of  coastal, near- and  off-shore industries,  ecosystems  and  wave energy  resources. However,  wind-waves have received little attention  in  global assessments  of  projected  long-term range  of  future  climate  change.  We  present  strategies  and results  from  the community  derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate  projections  (COWCLIP). The COWCLIP  project has been active  since  2011 and includes  global  and  regional wave  climate projections.  Results  show  that the  area  of  projected significant  wave height  Hs  decrease is  greater during boreal winter (January-March) than  boreal summer (July-September)  in  the  northern Hemisphere.  A  projected  increase  in  annual  mean  Hs  is  found over  7.1% of  the global ocean, predominantly  in  the Southern Ocean,  and  is  larger  during  austral  winter.  Increased  Southern Ocean wave activity influences a  larger proportion of  the global ocean as swell propagates  northwards into the  other ocean basins.