Abstract
Canada is witnessing a new wave of interest in tidal stream technology development in the Bay of Fundy, but uncertainty around potential impacts on marine life has left the federal regulator, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), challenged to adequately assess the risk, particularly in relation to fish. This uncertainty challenges the regulatory permitting process; without regulatory approval, developers cannot execute the planned project scope nor raise additional private sector funding to move forward.
Regulators perceive the greatest potential risk of tidal turbine operations as collisions between marine animals and turbines blades (Sparling et al., 2020). However, these types of interactions are difficult to observe directly: both because of the fast flowing, often turbid waters of tidal energy sites and because of the limitations of monitoring instruments which have been designed for use in more benign marine environments. The Risk Assessment Program (RAP) for tidal stream energy creates a way forward. RAP is a collaborative effort between the Fundy Ocean Research Centre for Energy (FORCE), Ocean Tracking Network at Dalhousie University, the Confederacy of Mainland Mi’kmaq/Mi’kmaw Conservation Group, Acadia University, Marine Renewables Canada, local fishers and knowledge holders to create a detailed, credible assessment tool to gauge the probability that fish will encounter a tidal device. Encounter rate modelling, or ERM (i.e., estimating the predicted frequency with which a stationary entity encounters a moving one), has become a standardized permitting tool for offshore wind projects, but little work has been done to date in North America to apply that concept to assessing risks presented by tidal turbine projects. RAP will assess the co-occurrence of fish and tidal turbines in the Bay of Fundy’s Minas Passage, where the probability of encounter will be determined by combining two data sets: physical oceanographic (flow) and biological (fish distribution). RAP partners will be able to estimate, for the first time, the probability that a fish will encounter a turbine. That will give regulators, Rights holders, community stakeholders, and technology developers a better understanding of the potential risks to fishes of commercial, cultural, and conservation value in the Bay of Fundy in advance of tidal turbine deployments, and will assist in the development of future environmental effects monitoring programs. The RAP project is entering its second year. This report provides an update of the outcomes accomplished to date in each of the pillars of the program, and the next steps for each pillar.