TY - JOUR
TI - A new hybrid approach for evaluating technology risks and opportunities in the energy transition in Ireland
AU - Sharma, T
AU - Gallachoir, B
AU - Rogan, F
T2 - Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
AB - We combine energy systems optimization models (ESOM), multi-criteria assessment (MCA) and a stakeholder workshop to evaluate decarbonization risks, trade-offs and opportunities for Ireland. Using an ESOM of Ireland, we develop decarbonisation scenario ensembles with variations across multiple dimensions, including carbon budget and technology availability as informed by a stakeholder workshop. For these scenario ensembles, we quantify investment risk and technology robustness and use these new attributes to conduct an MCA of technology risks, trade-offs and opportunities. Results include an assessment of technology opportunities for two investor archetypes, i.e., risk minimizing and return maximizing, and a sensitivity analysis of the MCA weights using Monte Carlo simulation. This represents a new methodology which demonstrates a synthesis of insights into technology opportunities associated with Ireland’s energy transition and their resilience across risk and economic criteria. By incorporating and displaying results for a diversity of perspectives, this work underlines the importance of transdisciplinary research.
DA - 2020/06//
PY - 2020
VL - 35
SP - 429
EP - 444
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2020.01.012
DO - 10.1016/j.eist.2020.01.012
LA - English
KW - Marine Energy
KW - Wind Energy
KW - Human Dimensions
KW - Legal & Policy
KW - Social & Economic Data
ER -