Risk management model of birds and a wind farm

Journal Article

Title: Risk management model of birds and a wind farm
Publication Date:
November 01, 2007
Journal: Japanese Journal of Conservation Ecology
Volume: 12
Issue: 2
Pages: 126-142
Publisher: Yokohama National University

Document Access

Website: External Link
Attachment: Access File
(2 MB)


Shimada, Y.; Matsuda, H. (2007). Risk management model of birds and a wind farm. Japanese Journal of Conservation Ecology, 12(2), 126-142.

We propose the Adaptive Management model for Uncertain Strike Estimates for birds (AMUSE). Between February 2004 and January 2007, seven dead white-tailed sea eagles were found near wind turbines in Hokkaido prefecture, Japan. We used this population as the target species in the management model. In the management model, we assumed that the bodies of any birds killed in collisions would disappear within 5 days, while the searches for carcasses were conducted every 30 days. The calculation period of the management model was 22 years, consisting of a 5-year planning period and a 17-year operation period. The operation management schedule was reviewed every three years. The utilized capacity was estimated from the data for 2003 to 2005 for Hokkaido. The operation rate multiplied by the utilized capacity gives the corrected utilized capacity. After the break-even point of the utilized capacity was determined, the time that fell below this was defined as the failure rate of the business. The results showed that the end point was achieved 99% of the time, while the failure rate was below 10%. An optimistic scenario was not affected by the two management scenarios or conditions used as protection measures. Conversely, a pessimistic scenario was achieved only under specific conditions in the management scenario. The main goals were to 1) estimate the number of days required for a carcass to disappear, 2) develop a search technique to improve the discovery rate of carcasses, 3) conduct regular surveys of carcasses, 4) determine the growth rate and population size by monitoring, 5) determine the results of breeding by breeding pairs in Hokkaido, and 6) examine risk hedging to deal with failure of the business.

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