Developing an Avian Collision Risk Model to Incorporate Variability and Uncertainty

Report

Title: Developing an Avian Collision Risk Model to Incorporate Variability and Uncertainty
Authors: Masden, E.
Publication Date:
September 01, 2015
Document Number: 14
Pages: 47
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Citation

Masden, E. (2015). Developing an Avian Collision Risk Model to Incorporate Variability and Uncertainty. Report by University of the Highlands and Islands (UHI). pp 47.
Abstract: 

As wind energy developments increase globally the potential associated environmental impacts are receiving considerable attention, particularly avian impacts. These potential impacts on bird populations can be grouped into three main types: direct mortality due to collision with turbines/infrastructure; physical habitat modification and/or loss; and behavioural responses of birds to turbines (Fox et al. 2006; Langston 2013). Focussing on avian collision, a variety of methods have been developed to aid the assessment of the risk of collision, including collision risk models.

 

After extensively reviewing both the peer-reviewed scientific literature and grey literature, 10 distinct collision risk models referring to birds and wind turbines were identified, the earliest dating back to 1996 (Tucker 1996). At their core, most avian collision risk models include a calculation of the probability of a collision occurring (assuming no evasive action or avoidance behaviour) and often also a measure of the number of birds at risk, if an estimate of likely collision events is to be calculated. The probability of collision is generally based on the probability of a turbine blade occupying the same space as the bird during the time that the bird takes to pass through the rotor swept area. This therefore relies upon information on both bird and wind turbine characteristics such as bird morphometrics and flight speed, turbine rotor speed and size, etc.

 

In the UK, the most frequently used avian collision risk model is commonly known as ‘the Band model’ (Band, Madders & Whitfield 2007) and was originally conceived in 1995. Since then it has undergone several iterations with the most recent associated with the Strategic Ornithological Support Services (SOSS) (Band 2012a; b). The Band model (Band 2012b) provides four different options for calculating collision risk.

 

  • Option 1 - Basic model, i.e. assuming that a uniform distribution of flight heights between the lowest and the highest levels of the rotors and using the proportion of birds at risk height as derived from site survey.
  • Option 2 - Basic model, but using the proportion of birds at risk height as derived from a generic flight height distribution provided.
  • Option 3 - Extended model and using a generic flight height distribution.
  • Option 4 - Extended model and using a flight height distribution generated from site survey.

 

The most recent update of the Band model guidance also provides an approach under which uncertainty can be expressed. However, this approach is relatively simplistic and can only be applied when the sources of variability are independent of one another. Furthermore, although provided, it is not routinely followed and so could 4 be improved upon. From undertaking interviews with stakeholders (for summary see Appendix 1), it was established that a new collision risk model that was fundamentally different was not required by the industry and the Band model was considered generally fit for purpose. However, although the majority of the stakeholders questioned did not consider major changes necessary, the general opinion was that if it were possible to incorporate uncertainty into the modelling process, it would be beneficial. The main reasoning for this was that expressing collisions as a single number does not sufficiently represent the complexity of the situation. In addition, it is known that the Band model is sensitive to the choice of input parameters (Chamberlain et al. 2006). Variability in input parameters such as bird density, flight speed and turbine rotor speed are likely to contribute uncertainty to the final collision estimates. Sensitivity analyses of both the basic and extended options of the Band model are provided in Appendix 2.

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